What if it’s not all about the Phillips curve?

Low inflation is focusing the minds of central banks, whose models are being challenged by an apparent anomaly, i.e. the lack of cyclical inflation. Since the reaction function of monetary policy is mainly based on the use of productive resources – first and foremost labour resources – it is understandable that the Philips curve’s current failure to work is highly troublesome. The Phillips curve has rarely exercised the minds of economists as much as it is doing today. A different approach – not looking at the supposedly known labour reserves represented by the unemployment rate, but on labour-market dynamics – could suggest a response to the current anomaly. If this approach is correct, there would be little reason to expect faster wage growth in the near future, at least – and surprisingly – in the economies furthest along the cycle, particularly the USA and UK.

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